The United States became a net exporter of crude oil to Nigeria for the first time in February and March 2025, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
This shift in trade dynamics was driven by two key factors: reduced demand for crude imports on the U.S. East Coast due to refinery maintenance, and increased demand from Nigeria’s newly operational Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
“For the first time, the United States exported more crude oil to Nigeria than it imported from the country during February and March 2025,” the EIA said in a statement on Tuesday.
The agency explained that maintenance at East Coast refineries temporarily reduced U.S. demand for foreign crude, including Nigerian oil. At the same time, Nigeria’s Dangote refinery—launched in January—began importing crude oil from the U.S. to support its operations.
“This marks the first time the United States has been a net exporter of crude oil to Nigeria,” the EIA noted. “Given ongoing structural changes in trade patterns, this could happen more frequently moving forward.”
Nigeria began importing U.S. crude in February, just weeks after the Dangote refinery came online. Historically, Nigeria has been a significant crude supplier to the U.S., particularly before the rise of American shale oil.
“Between 1973, when country-level crude import tracking began, and 2011, when U.S. domestic production surged, Nigeria consistently ranked among the top five sources of U.S. crude imports,” the EIA noted.
However, in 2024, Nigeria fell to ninth place among U.S. crude suppliers. U.S. crude exports to Nigeria rose to 111,000 barrels per day (b/d) in February and climbed to 169,000 b/d in March. Over the same period, imports from Nigeria dropped from 133,000 b/d in January to 54,000 b/d in February, then slightly increased to 72,000 b/d in March.
The decline in imports was largely linked to maintenance at the Phillips 66 Bayway refinery in New Jersey, which reduced the region’s need for foreign crude.
As Bayway resumed normal operations in April and the Dangote refinery underwent unplanned maintenance from early April through mid-May, the trade flow reversed: U.S. imports from Nigeria rose while exports to Nigeria declined.
The Dangote refinery is expected to reach its full crude processing capacity of 650,000 b/d later this year. Trade sources suggest it is currently operating at about 550,000 b/d.
According to the EIA, unless the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) increases its supply to the Dangote facility beyond the current 300,000 b/d, the refinery will likely continue relying on imported crude.
“Crude oil sales to the Dangote refinery are denominated in naira, Nigeria’s local currency,” the EIA explained. “Given the naira’s depreciation against the U.S. dollar, NNPC has an economic incentive to prioritise international crude sales.”
However, the NNPC’s ability to increase domestic supply remains uncertain. Nigeria’s crude oil production has steadily declined—from a peak of 2.4 million b/d in 2005 to just 1.3 million b/d in 2024.
