After the death of Ali Khamenei in a missile strike reportedly carried out by the United States and Israel during their conflict with Iran, attention has turned to who will lead the country next. Khamenei was 86 and said to be in poor health before the attack.
Iranian officials had already developed plans for leadership succession in case of his death, though the situation surrounding it was unexpected. According to Iran’s state-linked Mehr News Agency, a decision on the next Supreme Leader has already been made, but several issues still need to be resolved before the name is publicly announced.
A member of the Assembly of Experts, Hojjatoleslam Jafari, said the delay in announcing the new leader has been difficult for the country and expressed hope that the final choice will be accepted by the Iranian public.
Reports previously cited by The New York Times suggest that one of the leading contenders is Khamenei’s second son, Mojtaba Khamenei. However, analysts say his potential appointment could spark debate.
According to Christian Emery of University College London, Mojtaba is believed to hold considerable influence behind the scenes in Iran. Still, concerns remain over his limited government experience and fears within the political and clerical establishment that a hereditary transfer of power could undermine the principles of the Iranian Revolution, which rejected monarchy.
In earlier reports by the BBC, Khamenei himself had warned against the idea of hereditary succession and was believed to have dismissed the possibility of Mojtaba becoming his successor.
Mojtaba is also thought to maintain close ties with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Analysts say those connections date back to his participation in the Iran‑Iraq War and could further strengthen the influence of the Revolutionary Guards if he were chosen as leader.
Emery noted that Mojtaba’s appointment could help preserve the extensive economic and political power accumulated by the Revolutionary Guards during Ali Khamenei’s leadership.
However, the role could also place the next leader in danger. In a post on X, Israel Katz warned that whoever becomes Iran’s next Supreme Leader would be considered “an unequivocal target for elimination.”
The strike that killed Khamenei reportedly also claimed the lives of several of his family members, including his wife Zahra Adel, his mother Mansoureh Khojasteh Bagherzadeh, and one of his sons.
Since the Iranian Revolution, the country has had only two Supreme Leaders. The first was Ruhollah Khomeini, who ruled until his death in 1989. Ali Khamenei then assumed the position as Iran’s second Supreme Leader.
Under Iran’s constitution, the Assembly of Experts—an elected body of 88 clerics—selects the Supreme Leader through a majority vote. A smaller internal committee usually prepares a shortlist of potential candidates before the final decision is made.
Emery explained that this groundwork is typically done well ahead of time. When Khamenei himself was chosen in 1989, the Assembly reportedly confirmed him within 24 hours.
However, the ongoing war could make the process more complicated, as bringing the assembly together might expose senior Iranian officials to further attacks.
Other possible candidates include Gholam‑Hossein Mohseni‑Ejei, a hardline figure known for his role in suppressing anti-government protests. Another name mentioned is Hassan Khomeini, whose family legacy and connections to both reformist and conservative factions could make him a compromise choice.
A third potential contender is Alireza Arafi, who also serves in the Assembly of Experts. Observers say Arafi may be viewed as a safer option likely to continue Khamenei’s policies while maintaining the influence of the Revolutionary Guards.
