Russian President Vladimir Putin is reportedly preparing for a pivotal period both on the battlefield and on the global stage, with Western analysts warning that his ambitions may stretch beyond Ukraine as international diplomatic dynamics continue to shift. Experts believe the Kremlin sees an opportunity for a major escalation aimed at pressuring NATO, weakening European unity, and securing a legacy-defining outcome for the Russian leader.
Former diplomat Tim Wilsey of King’s College London said the current moment appears unusually favourable for Moscow, as Ukraine struggles to maintain its defences while Europe grapples with funding, manpower, and long-term commitment. “I expect Vladimir Putin to have a good year in 2026,” Wilsey told The Sun, noting that Putin has not enjoyed similar momentum in recent years and knows how to turn battlefield developments into strategic advantage.
Wilsey argued that the present trajectory could enable Putin to secure a peace settlement on terms favourable to Russia. “There is a really good chance that Putin will get a deal favourable to him, and that he will present it domestically as a victory,” he said, even if many Russians are aware of the human cost. Analysts warn that such an agreement may freeze the conflict rather than end it, giving Moscow time to regroup, rearm, and potentially resume hostilities later.
According to Wilsey, Russia’s military would require time to recover after suffering heavy losses. “The Russian army is in a dreadful state and it’s going to take a while to recover. My estimate is about three years,” he said, adding that Putin’s broader ambitions are far from over. He suggested that any pause in open warfare could lead to a more covert phase of conflict, including sabotage, political interference, cyber-operations, and targeted assassinations.
Wilsey also pointed out that Russia has strengthened its influence in parts of the former Soviet space and sees Moldova as particularly vulnerable. He added that Ukraine could still face renewed pressure, with Russia likely to “start nibbling away at the edges of Ukraine” to test how firm Western security assurances really are.
One emerging flashpoint raising growing concern is Narva, an Estonian border city with a predominantly Russian-speaking population and strong symbolic significance for Moscow. Wilsey described the city as particularly risky, noting that around 80 per cent of its residents are Russian-speaking. He questioned whether the United States would truly be willing to go to war over a single Estonian town, adding that his confidence in such a response has waned. Analysts point out that Putin has repeatedly challenged Narva’s status, suggesting it is historically Russian territory, a narrative that has heightened anxiety within NATO.
Foreign policy analyst Alan Mendoza of the Henry Jackson Society said the direction of the conflict may depend more on Washington than on Moscow. He argued that much of Putin’s future in 2026 will be shaped by decisions made by Donald Trump, as negotiations remain fluid with several possible outcomes. Mendoza warned that Trump could either intensify pressure by fully backing Ukraine or step back, effectively giving Putin greater freedom of action. He cautioned that while there is a chance Trump could take a firm stance, there is also the risk he may disengage entirely, allowing Russia to proceed unchecked. According to Mendoza, much of the current diplomatic activity is focused on shaping Trump’s eventual position.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin has adopted a more confident tone. Late last year, Putin claimed Russian forces had seized the “strategic initiative,” portraying Ukraine as the main barrier to peace while insisting Russia was prepared to end the war on terms it had already set out. Mendoza and other analysts say this messaging is intended to reframe pressure as diplomacy and steer talks toward a settlement that freezes the conflict rather than bringing it to a true end.
Diplomatic efforts have gathered pace, with negotiators in Berlin reportedly settling key elements of a potential agreement, including plans for a European-led peacekeeping force to monitor a ceasefire line. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has indicated that Kyiv could drop its bid for NATO membership in return for “Nato-like guarantees,” admitting that territorial issues remain the most challenging aspect of any deal. Analysts, however, caution that the emerging framework could hand Russia many of its core demands while merely giving the appearance of a lasting settlement.
Wilsey warned that Europe is responding too slowly at a critical juncture and said Putin could end the year having altered borders and weakened Western unity. He stressed that the decisive factor may not be Moscow’s actions alone, but how the West chooses to respond, determining whether 2026 ultimately becomes a turning point in Russia’s favour.
