Six months after Kemi Badenoch was elected leader of the UK Conservative Party, internal discussions have already turned toward the possibility of replacing her.
With local elections in England approaching, dissatisfaction among Conservative MPs and officials is growing. Many are concerned that Badenoch is not the right figure to lead the party into the next general election, scheduled for 2029.
According to more than two dozen sources who spoke to Bloomberg on condition of anonymity, there is rising support within the party to replace Badenoch with Robert Jenrick, the right-wing shadow justice secretary.
The unrest follows a period of poor polling for the Tories and the view that Badenoch, who became leader on November 2, 2024, has failed to tackle key issues, leaving the party exposed to challenges from Nigel Farage’s Reform Party. Badenoch’s spokesperson declined to comment, while a spokesperson for Jenrick pointed to an interview where he voiced support for Badenoch and urged people to give her more time.
The situation is expected to worsen with the upcoming local elections, where the Conservatives are predicted to lose a significant number of seats. The results will serve as an early gauge of the party’s standing ahead of the 2029 general election. In the last local elections in 2021, the Conservatives won nearly half of the races, buoyed by then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s success with the COVID-19 vaccine rollout. Since then, their popularity has plummeted, with the party now bracing for its worst-ever performance.
Political analysts warn of a potential “total wipe-out” for the Tories, with Rob Ford, a political science professor at the University of Manchester, describing the situation as a “total and unmitigated disaster.” After briefly overtaking Labour in the polls late last year, the Conservatives have now fallen more than five points behind both Labour and Reform, with Farage’s party emerging as a strong challenger on the right.
Initially, it was expected that Badenoch would have until the summer of 2026 to prove herself, but some in the party now believe her leadership could be challenged much sooner. A senior party figure described her as entering the “political death zone,” with MPs and donors increasingly debating her future.
Badenoch inherited a tough situation when she succeeded Rishi Sunak in November 2023 after the Conservatives suffered a historic landslide defeat to Labour. Although some argue that rebuilding the party would inevitably take time, frustration is mounting. Critics say Badenoch has focused too heavily on issues like net-zero policies and transgender rights, while neglecting voter concerns such as crime and immigration.
Her performances at prime minister’s questions have also drawn criticism, with her attempts to attack Labour leader Keir Starmer often backfiring and highlighting the Conservatives’ own record. Meanwhile, Farage’s Reform Party continues to make gains, further undermining Badenoch’s leadership. Some MPs argue she is too right-wing to attract centrist voters but not right-wing enough to compete with Farage’s populist appeal.
Jenrick, who has cultivated strong support on the party’s right wing, is increasingly viewed as a potential successor. He has led prominent campaigns on crime and national sovereignty, and a recent poll found he holds a much higher satisfaction rating among Conservative members than Badenoch. However, some centrist Tories worry that Jenrick could shift the party too far to the right and alienate middle-ground voters.
The situation remains fluid, with the party divided on whether a leadership change would help or hurt the Conservatives. Ultimately, the upcoming local elections will be critical in determining Badenoch’s fate. Analysts suggest that if media attention shifts toward Farage’s rise rather than a Conservative collapse, Badenoch may still survive—for now.
