China Reports 12.4% Export Surge Amid Escalating Trade Tensions with US
China announced on Monday that its exports jumped by more than 12% last month, defying expectations as companies raced to ship goods ahead of steep US tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on what he has called “Liberation Day.”
Beijing and Washington remain locked in an escalating trade standoff since Trump launched a wave of global tariffs—many of them targeting Chinese goods. In response, both countries have imposed tit-for-tat levies, with US duties on Chinese imports rising to 145%, while China has retaliated with tariffs of up to 125% on American products.
According to China’s General Administration of Customs, exports rose 12.4% in March—more than double the 4.6% forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Imports, meanwhile, declined by 4.3%, a relative improvement from earlier in the year, signalling a possible rebound in domestic demand.
Despite the tariff battle, the US remained China’s top export destination from January to March, with shipments totalling $115.6 billion. In March alone, exports to the US rose by nearly 9% year-on-year, even as a second round of American tariffs kicked in.
China’s leadership has set a 5% annual growth target, aiming to boost domestic demand as the main driver of the economy. However, that recovery faces renewed challenges from the ongoing trade war and structural economic issues like weak consumption and a lingering real estate debt crisis.
On Friday, the US signalled a slight easing of tensions by exempting products such as smartphones, laptops, and semiconductors—key Chinese exports—from its latest tariff list.
‘Frontloading’ Ahead of Tariffs
Analysts say the export surge likely reflects a rush to ship goods before new tariffs took effect on April 2. “The strong export data reflect frontloading of trade before the US tariffs were announced,” said Zhiwei Zhang, Chief Economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.
He warned, however, that exports are likely to weaken as higher US duties take full effect, adding that the uncertainty surrounding trade policy remains extremely high.
Julian Evans-Pritchard, Head of China Economics at Capital Economics, echoed those concerns, noting that while demand from US importers held firm in March, exports are expected to decline in the months and quarters ahead. “It could be years before Chinese exports regain current levels,” he said.
Meanwhile, Beijing has introduced various measures to stimulate growth—from interest rate cuts and easing homebuying restrictions to increasing local government debt limits and bolstering financial markets. But despite an initial market rally, investor optimism has faded as details on major stimulus plans remain vague.
