The ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran have sent global crude oil prices surging and prompted 10 major Nigerian petroleum marketers to increase their depot prices. Crude prices jumped 8.8%, climbing from $68 to $74 per barrel.
The price spike follows Iran’s threat to block the Strait of Hormuz—a strategic waterway that handles over 20% of the world’s oil and gas shipments. Experts warn that any disruption in the strait could deal a heavy blow to global trade and energy distribution.
Petrol Marketers Adjust Prices Upward
The following marketers have revised their depot prices:
- Emadeb: ₦827 → ₦845 (+2.18%)
- Ever: ₦866 → ₦870 (+0.46%)
- Aiteo: ₦835 → ₦840
- Pinnacle: ₦829 → ₦845
- Dangote Refinery: ₦830 → ₦840
- MENJ: ₦810 → ₦850
- Swift: ₦830 → ₦845
- Rainoil (Lagos): ₦840 → ₦850
- First Royal: ₦826 → ₦838
- First Fortune: ₦850 → ₦860
According to Petroleumprice.ng, global oil market instability may cause further increases in depot prices in the weeks ahead, especially if the conflict intensifies with more strikes and retaliation.
Geopolitical Stakes and Economic Impacts
OPEC has pointed out that Iran’s vast natural resources—oil, gas, coal, and minerals—add strategic weight to the crisis. While the US has urged both nations to show restraint, Iran has pledged a “harsh response,” deepening global uncertainty.
JP Morgan has projected that if the conflict escalates further, crude oil prices could spike to between $120 and $130 per barrel, especially if the Strait of Hormuz is shut down.
Nigeria: Risks and Opportunities
Dr. Muda Yusuf, Director of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), said the conflict introduces new risks to a global economy already on edge. He noted that the recent 15% rise in crude prices—from $65 to $75 per barrel—will likely result in higher costs for petrol, diesel, aviation fuel, and gas in Nigeria.
“These increases will push inflation even higher,” he said. “We’re likely to see tighter monetary policy, rising interest rates, and more difficult borrowing conditions for businesses. Non-oil investors and companies linked to the Middle East may face added pressure.”
Yusuf added that while higher oil prices could boost Nigeria’s revenue, excessive oil monetisation could destabilise the naira. Still, he acknowledged that elevated oil prices have historically correlated with GDP growth and improved stock market performance.
A Delicate Balance for Nigeria
Professor Wumi Iledare, a respected petroleum economist, called the situation a double-edged sword for Nigeria. He noted that oil prices nearing $90 per barrel, driven by OPEC+ discipline and Middle East unrest, place Nigeria in a potentially favourable position as the world’s 15th-largest oil exporter.
“This is a chance for Nigeria to earn more foreign exchange and support its budget,” he said. “But to benefit, we must manage production, improve domestic refining, and navigate the risks tied to global volatility.”
The Organisation of Gas Producers and Suppliers Association of Nigeria (OGSPAN) believes the current price trend could positively impact Nigeria’s 2025 budget. However, experts warn that unless the country boosts its crude output and stabilises local refining, gains may be short-lived.
