The World Bank has predicted an increase in poverty levels in Nigeria, estimating a rise of 3.6 percentage points by 2027. This projection was shared in its latest Africa’s Pulse report, unveiled during the ongoing Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank in Washington, DC.
The report paints a troubling picture for Nigeria’s poverty outlook, noting that even with slight improvements in economic activity—particularly in the non-oil sector by late 2024—deep-rooted issues such as overdependence on natural resources and national instability are likely to hinder progress.
According to the World Bank, countries in Sub-Saharan Africa that are both resource-dependent and fragile—like Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo—will face worsening poverty, unlike nations without significant resource wealth, which are expected to see faster reductions in poverty.
“Poverty in resource-rich, fragile countries—including large economies like Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo—is projected to increase by 3.6 percentage points between 2022 and 2027,” the report stated.
Sub-Saharan Africa remains the region most affected by extreme poverty, accounting for 80% of the world’s 695 million extreme poor in 2024. Half of the 560 million people in the region living in extreme poverty were found in just four countries. By comparison, South Asia held 8%, East Asia and the Pacific 2%, the Middle East and North Africa 5%, and Latin America and the Caribbean 3%.
The report links the slow progress in poverty reduction in resource-rich countries to declining oil prices and fragile fiscal systems. Meanwhile, non-resource-rich nations are capitalising on high agricultural commodity prices to boost economic growth, despite their own fiscal constraints.
“This follows a well-established pattern whereby resource wealth, when paired with fragility or conflict, results in the highest poverty rates—averaging 46% in 2024, which is 13 percentage points higher than in non-fragile, resource-rich countries,” the report added.
To address these issues, the World Bank is urging Nigeria and similar countries to improve fiscal governance and foster a stronger fiscal contract with their citizens, noting that such reforms are crucial for inclusive economic development and lasting poverty reduction.
