A historian renowned for his accurate predictions of every presidential election since 1984 has recently unveiled his forecast for the upcoming U.S. presidential election.
Allan Lichtman, a distinguished professor of history at American University in Washington, confidently asserts that “a lot would have to go wrong” for Joe Biden to lose against Donald Trump come November.
Lichtman’s predictive methodology, dubbed the ’13 Keys’, was introduced in a book he authored during the 1980s. He contends that this approach enables him “to forecast the popular vote outcome based solely on historical indicators, independent of polls, strategies, or campaign occurrences.”
Despite recent polls indicating Biden trailing behind Trump in several pivotal swing states, Lichtman maintains his stance that the odds are still in favor of the incumbent president retaining office. He points out that two of his ’13 Keys’ – namely, the absence of a significant primary challenge and the advantage of incumbency – already tilt in Biden’s favor.
“That’s two keys off the top,” he remarked. “That leaves six more keys that would need to fall to foresee his defeat. A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose.”
Lichtman remains unmoved by polls showing Trump either competitive with or surpassing Biden nationally and in key swing states.
“They’re fixated on the wrong things, namely the polls,” he explained. “Firstly, polls six or seven months before an election hold zero predictive value.”
However, this doesn’t imply the Biden campaign can assume victory is assured.
“There’s always the possibility of a significant event beyond the scope of the keys that could influence the election. For the first time, we have not just a former president but a major party candidate undergoing a trial, and who knows if he’ll be convicted – and there’s a strong likelihood he will be – which could disrupt things.”
Lichtman attributes Biden’s 2020 victory to the historical significance of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“The pandemic was his downfall,” he conveyed to The Guardian. “He commended me for predicting his win but failed to grasp the keys’ message. The essence of the keys is that governance, not campaigning, holds sway. Instead of addressing the pandemic substantively, as we’ve seen, he believed he could talk his way out of it, and that cost him.”
Nevertheless, some keys are favoring Trump.
“A significant third-party challenger is one of the keys, which may manifest in Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s role in the race.”
“Two keys revolve around the economy, and while certain economic indicators have leaned in Biden’s favor, he has yet to witness a rise in approval ratings as a result.”
“Social unrest is another key that works against Biden, with college campuses emerging as hubs for anti-Israel protests, where many young people refer to the president as ‘Genocide Joe.'”
“Both the incumbent’s charisma and the challenger’s charisma are considered keys, and although many perceive both candidates as too old, age appears to pose more of a challenge for Biden than Trump.”
